Predicting the future is tricky business

Leader Staff

I've been reading a little booklet compiled by Dave Walter, "Will Man Fly? And other strange and wonderful predictions from the 1890s." It's a collection of guesstimates of what life would be like in the 1990s. Quoted were predictions by a variety of folks: Poets, journalists, humorists, ministers, politicians, arts critics, musicians, editors, authors, reformers, industrialists, etc. A regular cross-section of the American population in the 1890s.

But predicting 100 years ahead is a tricky business.

Of course, in that era they had little inkling of coming attractions: aviation, computers, medical technology breakthroughs, various international wars, regional civil wars, political intrigue, tie votes in elections, space exploration, and a lot more at which we are amazed for a week or so and then take for granted.

Not surprisingly, most of the self-styled seers were way off the mark. Yet some were pretty close, too.

Here's just a sampling — remember, these predictions were made in the 1890s:

"The citizens who live in the next century are not going to pay two cents for a letter postage stamp. The price will be reduced to one cent." — Thomas L. James, U.S. Postmaster General

"The American people will have become educated to such an extent that the vice of intemperance will largely cease. Saloons or public drinking places will no longer exist." — Sidney G. Brock, politician/author

"The time of daily toil will be shortened to four or five hours. All willing hands will be employed and effort will be ease." — W.A. Peffer, Kansas politician

"Longevity will be so improved that 150 years will be no unusual age to reach." — Thomas DeWitt Talmage, theologian

(Uff da, I just reached the half-way mark last Sunday!)

Some prognosticators weren't too far off:

"There will be free trade throughout the North American continent and possibly free trade throughout the world." — Asa C. Matthews, financier

"Go into the Patent Office and see what we have done in the last 100 years. With that before him, no man dare set a limit as to what may be done in the next 100 years." — John W. Noble, Secretary of the Interior

"Woman will have the sole right to say when she shall wear the crown of motherhood." — Mary E. Lease, reformer

"Methods of agriculture will be such, and the improvement in agricultural machinery so great, that all the immense population of the 1990s will be amply provided for. American citizens will continue to be the best dressed, the best fed, and the best housed people of the world." — Sidney G. Brock, politician/author

"One hundred years from now, I look to see a considerable part of the money needed for our government raised by means of an income tax." — Daniel W. Voorhees, Indiana politician

"Education is certain to be broader and fuller. We must education the whole man — the head, the hand, the heart. Especially must our methods be revolutionized." — Thomas Dixon, Jr., minister/cinematographer

Will Man Fly? is a fun reading little book, compiled by Dave Walter, published by American & World Geographic Publishing. Look for it in your local book stores.

So, what do you think the country and world will be like by the end of this century?

I've got mixed feelings. There will continue to be great strides in medicine, science, agriculture, responses of care and compassion to natural disasters.

But on the other hand, mankind's track record is abysmal in so many areas. There will continue to be wars and rumors of wars, corruption, political posturing, greed, crime, etc. Tradition is hard to break.

Barring a spiritual revival of immense proportions, it's probable that the smarter we get, the dumber we'll get.