A little off the top By Ethan Smith

In pursuit of perfection

It’s been an exciting week for baseball fans, after 23-year-old rookie Clay Bucholz pitched a no-hitter against the Orioles Saturday night in only his second major league start ever.

He must be destined for greatness, right?

Not likely.

In fact, the beauty of the no-hitter is just how many average and sub-par pitchers have thrown one, proving what we all know — that on any given average work day, sometimes … well, sometimes even great things can happen to average people.

Having said that, I still dream of seeing a no-hitter in person. But the chances of seeing a no-hitter thrown in a professional baseball game are about 1 in 1,500. In other words, you could go to every home game for your favorite team for 20 years and there’s still no guarantee that you’ll see one.

The odds of seeing a perfect game, in which nobody reaches first base, and no errors are committed? About 1 in 1.5 million.

(Many years ago, when I had this really boring job that involved sitting in a lot of meetings, I used to just zone out and think about baseball. You know what I’m talking about, when you pretend to listen to someone but really you’re thinking about something else. That’s what’s saved your marriage, right?

Well, I do that with baseball. So I added up the average number of teams since about 1890, multiplied by the number of games in a season, multiplied by about 120 — a rough estimate on how many years they’ve been keeping “professional” stats on baseball — and divided by the number of no-hitters and perfect games. There’s some variables there — the number of teams and games in a season has expanded over the years, but it’s a good guesstimate.)

Anyway, back to Mr. Bucholz. He’s in only his second start of his career, and does what hundreds of pitchers have dreamed of but few have accomplished. However, this is no guarantee that he’ll go on to great things. The list of pitchers who’ve thrown no-hitters is filled with mediocre guys who just happened to have a great night.

Gives me hope for my workday.

For every Nolan Ryan (seven no-hitters), there’s a guy like Josh Beckett, who pitched a no-hitter for the Florida Marlins a few years ago in which he gave up 12 walks. No wonder nobody could hit the ball — it wasn’t anywhere near the plate.

But, in watching the Fenway Park crowd go nuts on ESPN Saturday, after Bucholz no-hit my Orioles, I felt really jealous. The cool thing about a no-hitter or perfect game is that it’s so unexpected, and you never know who will throw one.

Best of all, it takes more than two hours to develop, and that two hours of suspense can be thrown away just like that (picture me snapping my fingers right now). Seeing a no-hitter is something I dream about, but it’s highly unlikely to happen to me or any other fan in a lifetime, no matter how many games you go to. And that’s what makes the moment so special.

I almost had a chance to witness greatness about 10 years ago, as I watched Mike Mussina take a no-hitter into the 9th inning.

There I was, in Camden Yards with my dad, enjoying probably my 85th Orioles game, give or take, and Mussina was on fire. Before God punished him for going to the Yankees, he used to have those nights where he was unhittable, where he could tell the opposing batters what he was going to throw, and they still couldn’t hit it.

That night was one of those nights. And suddenly, in the fourth or fifth inning, I looked up and saw donuts on the scoreboard. Nothing but zeros. I didn’t want to jinx it by nudging my dad and pointing it out — never talk about it, or else it won’t happen — but pretty soon the sixth, seventh and eighth innings came and went, and still, no hits.

I was three outs away from a dream come true. Dad and I were on the edge of our seats. I crossed my fingers ….

… only to watch the lead-off batter in the ninth inning get a hit. The no-no was no more.

I sighed, shook my head, and prepared to leave. I was devastated, but really, I knew I didn’t have a right to be too disappointed. The chances of seeing them are slim to none, and that’s why they are so special.

So, maybe one day I’ll live closer to a major league ball club again, and maybe I’ll go to 15 or 20 games a year. And when I walk into the ball park each night, it will be with the understanding that that could be the night for greatness.